Commitment Bias

• A study done by a pair of Canadian psychologists uncovered something fascinating about people at the racetrack. Just after placing a bet, they are much more confident of their horse's chances of winning than they are immediately before laying down that bet.
• The reason for the dramatic change is the obsessive desire to be (and to appear) consistent with what we have already done. Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment. Those pressures will cause us to respond in ways that justify our earlier decision. Overconfidence In the US,
• 19% of people think they belong to the richest 1% of the country's households
  
• 82% of people say they are in the top 30% of safe drivers
  
• 80% of students think they will finish in the top half of their class
  
• 81% of new business owners think their business has at least a 70% chance of success, but only 39% think any business like theirs is likely to succeed
  
• 86% of Harvard Business School students say they are better looking than their classmates Overconfidence leads to straying beyond circle of competence, underestimating others and overestimating one's own abilities.

• Information that is consistent with our existing mindset is perceived and processed easily.
• However, since our mind strives instinctively for consistency, information that is inconsistent with our existing mental image tends to be overlooked, perceived in a distorted manner, or rationalized to fit existing assumptions and beliefs.
• Thus, new information tends to be perceived and interpreted in a way that reinforces existing beliefs.

• "Recently we worked on a project that involved users rating their experience with a computer".
• "When we had the computer the users had worked with, ask for an evaluation of its performance, the responses tended to be positive".
• 'But when we had a second computer ask the same people to evaluate their encounters with the first machine, the people were significantly more critical". The users' reluctance to criticize the first computer 'face to face' suggested they didn't want to hurt its feelings, even though they knew it was only a machine.